On Ryan Smyth and the Value of Leadership

Through 17 games of the 2011-12 regular season, the Oilers currently sit in 6th place in the West and 2nd in the Northwest, only 3 points behind the Wild with a game in hand.  The surprising start to the season has been the result of number of players performing better than Oilers fans could have hoped they would, with one standout being none other than Ryan Smyth.

Smyth has once again found the scoring touch that made him a 30-goal man four times in his NHL career.  Through the first 17 games, Smyth has scored an impressive 10-7-17, good enough for the team lead, with a +2 rating.   Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that Smyth is currently 2nd on the team with 29 PIMs, which has largely been the result of his willingness to get into the tough areas and battle for every puck.  The Oilers made the deal for Smyth this summer in the hopes that he would bring leadership into the dressing room and show the next generation of Oilers what it takes to be successful in the NHL.  So far it's been pretty obvious that he has done all that and more.  Of course no one expects Smyth to keep up this 48 goal and 82 point pace, but he will almost certainly improve on the 23-24-47 he scored last year in LA.  Whether it's being back in an Oilers uniform that has him motivated or another case of a player in his contract year, Smyth is proving his worth.  Points aside, it's the so-called intangibles that he brings to this roster that makes up his true value to this team.

The early success of Ryan Smyth in his return to the Orange and Blue however raises an interesting debate.  When he first came back to the Oilers, Smyth made it abundantly clear that his desire was to re-sign in Edmonton and likely finish his career here.  Smyth will be 36 years old when his current deal expires.  Oilers fans assumed he would take a hometown discount on his next deal, but if he manages to get back to 30 goals this year, how much of a discount will it be?  With Hemsky's deal also set to expire and Hall, Eberle, and MPS a year away from RFA status, how much can the Oilers afford to offer Smyth on his next deal?  How much is leadership worth moving forward?  Ryan Smyth is definitely an important piece of this growing roster that the Oilers needs to keep around, but smart cap management will be key.  They say the intangibles are not easily quantifiable, but Tambellini and company will need to to do exactly that between now and this summer.

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On Wishful Thinking and the Need for Players to Buy In

Earlier this week, the biggest free agent of the 2011 offseason put pen to paper on a new NHL contract. Steve Stamkos signed a 5 year $37.5M deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which brings him in at a very friendly cap hit of $7.5M for a team operating with an internal salary cap. At only 21 years of age, Stamkos has already established himself as a premiere goal scorer in the NHL, having put up 51 and 45 goal seasons in the last two years respectively. Through 243 NHL games he has scored an impressive 119-113-232 and is now arguably one of the top 3 players in the league, yet with this new deal he won't be paid as such. In terms of the annual cap hit, Stamkos comes in at a tie for 7th in the league along side Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. In fact, Stamkos accepted a deal that will pay him less than his teammate and captain Vincent Lecavalier, who has only scored 78-113-191 in the same 3 years that Stamkos has been around. Clearly Stamkos has bought into the fact that in a salary cap system, for teams to be competitive, top players need to share the wealth. This is something that the Oilers will need to recognize in the coming years as this rebuild comes to fruition, and especially IF their top prospects do indeed develop into top players as fans in Oil Country are all hoping they will.

Stamkos is of course not the first NHL superstar to take less than market value in a new contract for the good of the team. The Detroit Red Wings have instilled this philosophy into their players for years and have thus been able to ice highly competitive rosters year after year. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, and arguably Nicklas Lidstrom as well, are all playing under cap friendly contracts in order to allow Ken Holland to maintain a certain level of talent throughout the rest of the roster. In Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby could have easily demanded the maximum salary allowed under the current CBA during his negotiations in 2007, but instead opted to accept a lower number to help build a Championship winning team. Crosby accepting his reduced deal made it easier for the Penguins to re-sign Evgeni Malkin the next year as well. In Vancouver, the Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler are all playing for less than their numbers warrant and that certainly helped in adding significant pieces to the team that just played in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

Whether Oilers management will be able to impart this "team first" culture onto their players remains to be seen, but it will be tested in the coming year. On July 1st 2012 two important pieces to this rebuild in Ales Hemsky and Ryan Smyth are set to become unrestricted free agents. These two players are currently putting a combined $10.32M dent in the salary cap, and while one will very likely accept a home town discount on a new deal, the other is due for a raise. When Ryan Smyth requested a trade back to the Oilers he made it abundantly clear that his intentions were to play in Edmonton beyond his current contract, and that desire coupled with Smyth's age and recent production will likely see his cap hit come down from the $6.25M it currently sits at. With Hemsky the future is not as clear. He recently indicated that he was happy with the direction the team was headed in and that he may not be all that interested in testing the open market. If this is the case and Hemsky does re-sign it will be interesting to see where his new deal comes in. If Hemsky does buy in to this philosophy, he'll need to accept a deal that won't handicap the Oilers and their ability to re-sign Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Magnus Paajarvi the following summer. In recent history the the first overall draft pick has received a significant raise in their second NHL contract, with 4 of the last 5 (Stamkos, Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin) signing large deals with an average annual cap hit of $8.0M, the one exception is Erik Johnson who's cap hit actually dropped after his entry level deal. If this trend continues, which it likely will when John Tavares re-signs with the Islanders, it can be expected that Taylor Hall would also see a good raise in pay with his next contract.

The Oilers have been building a roster of young players with a lot of skill over the past few years, but with high skill comes the potential for high salaries. While top end talent is certainly important, there are many other pieces that go into building a winning franchise, and Oilers management will need to maintain the flexibility to be able to add those pieces when the time is right. If this young nucleus is to stay together for years to come, both the players and management will need to work together to make it financially possible within the NHL salary cap.

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On How They Did In Round 1

So the first round of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft has come and gone and as expected the Oilers selected Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first overall. While there was a fair bit of action on the draft floor, the Oilers stayed relatively quiet, though likely not for lack of trying, and opted to stick with their 19th overall pick and ended up drafting Swedish defenseman Oscar Klefbom. In other news, after a day of rumors that the Calgary Flames had a deal in place to acquire Ryan Smyth from the LA Kings, Smyth opted to veto the trade and hold out for a deal with the Edmonton, which eventually came with the Oilers sending Gilbert Brule and a conditional draft pick back the other way. However, while media outlets in LA have reported the deal is done, Steve Tambellini himself has denied this. Regardless, this is a trade that will eventually be completed, likely by tomorrow.

Overall the Oilers had a successful first day of the 2011 Draft. They picked the best player available with their first pick and managed to grab a big defensive defenseman at #19. In Oscar Klefbom the Oilers are getting a physical character defenseman who can move the puck well and played in the Swedish Elite League at 17 last year. He also captained Team Sweden to a silver medal at the U18 World Jr Tournament. At 6 foot 4 and 200 pounds he certainly has the size to play the NHL game but may need some time to develop.

Today the Oilers were able to add two solid prospects to help fill two large holes in the current roster at center ice and on the back end. More importantly they did so without having to give up a significant roster player in an attempt to move up from the 19 spot. They also added the veteran leadership of Ryan Smyth and managed to ship out an expendable forward in Gilbert Brule. Hopefully the Oilers can find more success tomorrow in the remaining rounds.

UPDATE: TSN and the Edmonton Journal are reporting that concerns over the health of Brule is holding up the Smyth deal. While the trade is still likely to be completed, it will probably involve different pieces going back to the LA Kings.

UPDATE2: The Oilers reported this morning that Ryan Smyth is heading back to Edmonton in exchange for Colin Fraser and a 7th round pick. Interesting that the final offer was less than what was in the original deal. Good on Steve Tambellini to not cave to all the fan pressure to just make a deal happen but to actually hold out and get the best deal for the Oilers.

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On Ryan Smyth and a Possible Return

Ryan Smyth was the saving grace of the 1994 NHL entry draft for the Edmonton Oilers when they selected him 6th overall after making the mistake of drafting Jason Bonsignore with the 4th overall pick. In 12 seasons for the Copper and Blue, Smyth scored 265-284-549 and currently sits 7th all time in Oilers scoring history. During his tenure in Edmonton, Smyth became a fan favorite not because of his offensive abilities, but because of the so called intangibles that were so obvious in his game. Smyth played the game with heart and passion, and was a true workhorse every shift, every game. He displayed a constant willingness to sacrifice for the team, which was no more evident than during the 2006 Stanley Cup run, and also likely the reason why he only played 4 full seasons in his 12 years with the Oilers. He was a true leader for the team both on and off the ice and became the face of the franchise. Then in the spring of 2007, Kevin Lowe and the Oilers made a decision they probably now regret when they opted to trade Smyth at the deadline after failing to come to terms on a new contract. So today when Bob Mckenzie posted an article on TSN suggesting that Smyth was interested in a return to the Oilers, it was no surprise that OIL country was abuzz with the news. Smyth, and not Nugent-Hopkins, was the Ryan that Oilers fans were interested in acquiring on this day.

In an interesting turn of events, Smyth himself later denied the story in an interview with the Edmonton Journal's Jim Matheson. However it has since been reported by Helene Elliott of the LA Times that Smyth requested a trade for family reasons and Kings GM Dean Lombardi confirmed that he has had talks with Smyth. Looking at the Kings numbers it would make sense that Lombardi would be open to trading Smyth. They currently have 11M in cap space (with a 59.4M cap) with only 16 players under contract, and still need to sign a number of free agents including Drew Doughty and Wayne Simmonds. Trading away a 35 year old veteran with a big contract and one year away from unrestricted free agency would go a long way financially. So if all of this is true and Smyth does indeed want to return, should the Oilers welcome him back with open arms?

Smyth has one year remaining on his 5 year 31.2M contract at an annual cap hit of 6.25M, although his actual salary for the upcoming season is only 4.5M. These numbers are hardly an issue for the Oilers who currently have over 20M in cap space, and likely have no intention of spending to the ceiling for the upcoming year. Last season Smyth scored 23-24-47 and appeared in all 82 games for the Kings while still playing significant minutes (18:02 TOI/g). Interestingly, despite developing into a strong penalty killer while with the Oilers, the Kings hardly used him shorthanded (0:19 SH TOI/g). However Smyth did factor largely into their powerplay unit (2:57 PP TOI/g), parked in front of the net no doubt. So clearly, while he has taken his fair share of punishment over 16 NHL seasons, Smyth clearly still has game left in him.

While his offensive output last season with the Kings was hardly that of a 6 million dollar player, his 23 goals and 47 points would still have lead the Oilers in scoring. Offensive numbers aside, his ability to play in all situations, as well as up and down the lineup would be a great asset to the Oilers. On this roster, Smyth wouldn't be counted on to provide offense every night. Which brings me back to the intangibles. Over the past few years Oilers management has been adding a lot of skill to the lineup, but it is very young skill. The Oilers last season were the 3rd youngest team in the league with an average age of only 25.8 years. The Boston Bruins just proved to the hockey world that experience is still important to winning. Along with the experience in Smyth also comes his veteran leadership. While Shawn Horcoff did a fine job in his first year as Captain, you can never have enough strong leaders on a team. Not only does Smyth lead in the locker room, but he also leads by example on the ice. There are not many players better to help teach the young players on this team about what it takes to be a professional in the NHL, and more importantly what it takes to be an Oiler.

Of course there are some drawbacks to bringing Smyth back to Edmonton. Mainly he would be taking potential ice time away from the younger players the coaching staff are working to develop, players such as Teemu Hartikainen who also plays a gritty game on the left wing. Secondly, what would the price be the Oilers would have to pay to bring him back? In a perfect world the Oilers could send back Sheldon Souray, who will make the same salary as Smyth this season with 1 year remaining on his contract, but given Lombardi is likely trying to gain cap space in a deal, they would probably have little interest. Although it has been suggested that the asking price from the Kings may not be all that high.

Given all this, the benefits of bringing back Smyth clearly outweigh the negatives. On a young rebuilding team such as the Oilers, having another veteran leader to mentor and guide the young stars would be the greatest gain. It's obvious that Ryan Smyth still bleeds OIL, so why not bring back a player who is motivated and has the desire to play for this team and this city? Trade for Smyth, put an 'A' on his chest, and help move this team forward into the future.

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