On Ales Hemsky and Ryan Whitney

This past year, two very important pieces of the Edmonton Oilers roster underwent two significant surgeries each to repair two critical body parts for the sport of hockey. Ales Hemsky underwent his second shoulder surgery in the past two years, while Ryan Whitney underwent ankle surgery, just after coming back from a second foot osteotomy the season prior. Both players were early first round picks in the NHL entry draft, going 13th overall in 2001 and 5th overall in 2002 respectively, and both are arguably currently entering the prime of their careers. Both players have had to deal with a pretty significant injury history in their young careers, but when healthy both have the potential to be game changers.

At his best, Ales Hemsky is a dynamic winger who can quarterback a powerplay and make opposing defenders look like pylons with his quick hands and high end skill. He has the vision to be a great playmaker and the ability to finish plays when he chooses to shoot the puck.  He also isn't afraid to go to the high traffic areas and take a hit to make a play, hence the two shoulder surgeries in two years. Like Hemsky, when he's at his peak, Ryan Whitney can largely influence a game. His puck moving ability allows him to control the point on the man-advantage, and his great first pass is a significant piece to the transition game of the Oilers.

In the past two seasons, Hemsky has played in just 69 games for the Oilers, posting 64 points. Whitney on the other hand, in that same time span has appeared in just 54 games and put up 38 points. Through two months of the 2011-12 season, Hemsky has already missed 11 games and Whitney has missed 17.  Yet despite the similarities between them: age, offensive ability, and injury history, the way in which these players are viewed in Oil Country is growing ever disparate.

With Ryan Whitney, despite his early struggles, fans and media alike seem to be willing to show patience and allow him to play his way back into form. His 1 point and -4 rating has been attributed to the significant time and games he's missed, and most are convinced that given enough time, the Ryan Whitney of last season will return, which he almost certainly will. With Hemsky however, Oil Country doesn't seem to have that kind of patience. The fact that he's off of his point-per-game pace and his hesitation to shoot the puck has been a large point of criticism, despite the fact that he has also missed a significant amount of time. The expectations for both players seems to be quite different across Oil Country. If it's unfair for fans to expect Whitney to immediately be an impact player in his return to the Oilers lineup, why is it fair for fans to expect the same of Hemsky?

There has been more and more trade rumblings involving Ales Hemsky these days. While of course his contract status plays a big part in it, in addition to his start to the year, it may be a bit premature to make a move that big.  Given his current level of play, Hemsky's value is probably at its low right now, and any move the Oilers were to make would net them something significantly short of what Oilers fans should want in return. Just because Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle have been dominating to start the year, it doesn't mean Hemsky is all of a sudden expendable and should be tossed away. There is still almost 3 months until the NHL trade deadline. Between now and then, Tambellini and company need to figure out what Hemsky's level of commitment to this team is and how much of next year's salary cap they can afford to give him, should they choose to re-sign. If free agency is the route Hemsky chooses to take, then the Oilers have to move him, but not until February 27th. Having Hemsky in the lineup will help more than anything he could bring back in a trade right now. If Tambellini can get Colten Teubert, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick for Dustin Penner, then Oilers fans should also want something in that ballpark for Hemsky.

But just as fans have demonstrated a willingness to wait for Whitney to turn it around, Hemsky should at least be offered the same amount of patience. He'll play his way out of this slow start, and the Hemsky that Oilers fans know and used to love will eventually return, hopefully.

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On Kid Line 2.0 and Managing Expectations

Fans got a sneak peak at the future of the Edmonton Oilers tonight as Tom Renney finally put together the trio of players that will form the cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins centered Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle for the first time this preseason and the kid line 2.0 did not disappoint, generating all three goals in a 3-2 victory over the Phoenix Coyotes, with the last two first overall picks in the NHL entry draft netting 6 points. The trio of young forwards displayed an impressive transition game and scored two of the three goals off the rush, something that Oilers forwards have had difficulty doing in the past.  As an Oilers fan you can't help but think about what this line has in store for years to come. There seems to be the pieces required for a great chemistry: an elite playmaker, a hard nosed power forward, and a budding sniper.  But will they be playing together in the NHL this season?

As exciting as it was tonight to see the sublime passing by Nugent-Hopkins combined with the great finishing of Hall, the quality of competition wasn't exactly the cream of the crop. With not quite an NHL caliber lineup iced by the Coyotes it's hard to judge how good this line could really be in the regular season. This was also the Coyotes team that I predicted to finish last in the Western Conference earlier this summer. With two games remaining on the preseason schedule against the Wild and Canucks, it will be interesting to see if Renney gives this line another chance to play against tougher competition and what will surely be near NHL rosters.

While Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle certainly have their names already etched on the roster sheet for this season, whether Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will stay past the first 9 games is still up in the air. But so far in the preseason he's done almost everything right, and is making a strong case for himself. He's scored 6 points in 4 games, which has likely exceeded almost everyone's expectations. Not only has he performed on the offensive side of the puck, but he's managed to stay responsible on the defensive side as well. He definitely does not look out of place on NHL ice. Most importantly he's been able to play the game that made him the first overall pick this summer. This is still an ongoing evaluation of RNH, but he's making the most of his opportunities and doing everything he can to stick with the big club. Regardless of what happens in October, it sure makes for exciting times in Oil Country.

Flying under the shadow of the new kid line tonight was the reunited man line of Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky, and it was just like old times. The trio worked the cycle well, and while they were held off of the score sheet, they seemed to find the chemistry they had back in 2006. Hemsky played in his first game since March 1st and looked like the same player we last saw. He didn't shy away from contact, even crashing Phoenix goalie Mike Smith hard off the wing on one rush when he tried to tuck the puck in far side. Importantly he looked comfortable out there with his rebuilt shoulder. Hopefully Hemsky will be able to build on this first game back, as the Oilers will need him if they are going to be competitive in the Western Conference this season.

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On the Start of Oilers Training Camp

The Edmonton Oilers are set to open the 2011-12 training camp tomorrow morning, starting with team physicals. This will be the second year in a row that camp will start following a long offseason and a first overall pick at the NHL entry draft. But this time around things are a bit different. While the word of the summer of 2010 in OIL Country was rebuild, the word this summer perhaps was retool. A lot of new pieces were brought into the puzzle that will hopefully take the shape of a winner here in Edmonton this offseason. Pieces that didn't seem to fit were moved out and pieces of a specific form were brought in to fill the gaps. Last season the objective was to help the young players learn how to compete at the NHL level. This year the objective should be for the young players to learn how to win. There are however still a number of questions that are worth debating heading into training camp.

Here are 5 of them:

1. Will Ryan Nugent-Hopkins prove he is ready to compete at the NHL level? This is of course the number one question on Oilers' fans minds as training camp starts. There is no doubt that RNH possesses the skill and sense of an NHLer, but will his 175 lb frame be ready to handle the physical rigors of playing at the highest level for 82 games. RNH will get every opportunity throughout the preseason, and likely through another 9 games in the regular season, to demonstrate that he can handle the physicality and still play his game. The answer to this question is not so obvious right now, but it's worth noting that in 2007 Patrick Kane entered the league at around the same weight and still finished with 72 points and won the Calder Memorial Trophy.

2. How will Ales Hemsky and Ryan Whitney respond to offseason surgery? It was already reported earlier this week that both of these veterans will likely not be 100% by the start of preseason. Ryan Whitney was the teams best defenseman last year before an ankle injury ended his season. With his ability to move the puck and generate offense from the back end, a healthy Whitney will be integral to the Oilers improving on their 2010-11 finish. Earlier in the summer Hemsky said that heading into this season he was the healthiest he had been in a long time. What Whitney is on the blue line, Hemsky is up front for the Oilers. Everyone knows how good Hemsky can be when he's healthy, and with unrestricted free agency looming, this will be an important year for both him and the Oilers.

3. Will Petry or Chorney win out as the 7th defenseman? What makes this debate interesting is the fact that waivers will play a large role in determining who is on the NHL roster at the end of the preseason. Starting this season Taylor Chorney is no longer exempt from waivers and will have to clear if the Oilers decide to send him to the AHL. Petry on the other hand is still waiver exempt and the Oilers therefore have no risk in losing him to another club if they choose to send him down. After seeing them both play in the show last season, in my opinion Jeff Petry has already passed Taylor Chorney on the depth chart. However, the Oilers have been developing and waiting on Taylor Chorney since they took him with the 6th pick in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft and are still hoping that they can get a return on their investment of such a high pick. Whether Chorney would be claimed on waivers at this point in his career is questionable but it may not be a risk management is willing to take yet.

4. Which Nikolai Khabibulin will show up to training camp? Two seasons ago, after the Oilers signed him to a new four year deal, Khabibulin started strong and played well despite the inexperience team that skated in front of him each night. The numbers didn't show it but Khabibulin was arguably their MVP that season until a back injury ended his year. Last season, Khabibulin was a completely different story. His compete level dropped off and he seemed content to allow a young goaltender take a bigger share of the starts than he should have. Things went from bad to worse when a drunk driving conviction landed him in jail and subsequent house arrest this summer. If Khabibulin comes to camp ready to battle for the starting role again, the Oilers will have a healthy competition in net this year, which may not be a bad thing.

5. Which of Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, and Anton Lander will start the regular season in Edmonton? At this point the scales may be tipping in favor of Linus Omark given the offensive skill he showed last season. But with Hartikainen showing he has the big body and soft hands to compete and contribute in the NHL at the end of last season, and Lander demonstrating early on that he can bring a complete all-around game to the roster, there may be some competition for Omark. Not to mention this debate will be further complicated if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins takes one of the 13 or 14 forward spots. Omark was clearly displeased with being sent down to the AHL at the end of training camp last season, and it's looking like he'll have to work even harder this year if he wants to avoid the same result.

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On Wishful Thinking and the Need for Players to Buy In

Earlier this week, the biggest free agent of the 2011 offseason put pen to paper on a new NHL contract. Steve Stamkos signed a 5 year $37.5M deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which brings him in at a very friendly cap hit of $7.5M for a team operating with an internal salary cap. At only 21 years of age, Stamkos has already established himself as a premiere goal scorer in the NHL, having put up 51 and 45 goal seasons in the last two years respectively. Through 243 NHL games he has scored an impressive 119-113-232 and is now arguably one of the top 3 players in the league, yet with this new deal he won't be paid as such. In terms of the annual cap hit, Stamkos comes in at a tie for 7th in the league along side Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. In fact, Stamkos accepted a deal that will pay him less than his teammate and captain Vincent Lecavalier, who has only scored 78-113-191 in the same 3 years that Stamkos has been around. Clearly Stamkos has bought into the fact that in a salary cap system, for teams to be competitive, top players need to share the wealth. This is something that the Oilers will need to recognize in the coming years as this rebuild comes to fruition, and especially IF their top prospects do indeed develop into top players as fans in Oil Country are all hoping they will.

Stamkos is of course not the first NHL superstar to take less than market value in a new contract for the good of the team. The Detroit Red Wings have instilled this philosophy into their players for years and have thus been able to ice highly competitive rosters year after year. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, and arguably Nicklas Lidstrom as well, are all playing under cap friendly contracts in order to allow Ken Holland to maintain a certain level of talent throughout the rest of the roster. In Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby could have easily demanded the maximum salary allowed under the current CBA during his negotiations in 2007, but instead opted to accept a lower number to help build a Championship winning team. Crosby accepting his reduced deal made it easier for the Penguins to re-sign Evgeni Malkin the next year as well. In Vancouver, the Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler are all playing for less than their numbers warrant and that certainly helped in adding significant pieces to the team that just played in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

Whether Oilers management will be able to impart this "team first" culture onto their players remains to be seen, but it will be tested in the coming year. On July 1st 2012 two important pieces to this rebuild in Ales Hemsky and Ryan Smyth are set to become unrestricted free agents. These two players are currently putting a combined $10.32M dent in the salary cap, and while one will very likely accept a home town discount on a new deal, the other is due for a raise. When Ryan Smyth requested a trade back to the Oilers he made it abundantly clear that his intentions were to play in Edmonton beyond his current contract, and that desire coupled with Smyth's age and recent production will likely see his cap hit come down from the $6.25M it currently sits at. With Hemsky the future is not as clear. He recently indicated that he was happy with the direction the team was headed in and that he may not be all that interested in testing the open market. If this is the case and Hemsky does re-sign it will be interesting to see where his new deal comes in. If Hemsky does buy in to this philosophy, he'll need to accept a deal that won't handicap the Oilers and their ability to re-sign Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Magnus Paajarvi the following summer. In recent history the the first overall draft pick has received a significant raise in their second NHL contract, with 4 of the last 5 (Stamkos, Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin) signing large deals with an average annual cap hit of $8.0M, the one exception is Erik Johnson who's cap hit actually dropped after his entry level deal. If this trend continues, which it likely will when John Tavares re-signs with the Islanders, it can be expected that Taylor Hall would also see a good raise in pay with his next contract.

The Oilers have been building a roster of young players with a lot of skill over the past few years, but with high skill comes the potential for high salaries. While top end talent is certainly important, there are many other pieces that go into building a winning franchise, and Oilers management will need to maintain the flexibility to be able to add those pieces when the time is right. If this young nucleus is to stay together for years to come, both the players and management will need to work together to make it financially possible within the NHL salary cap.

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On What to Do With Ales Hemsky

Today over at The Cult of Hockey an article was posted regarding the Columbus Blue Jackets' interest in Ales Hemsky. With the Blue Jackets holding the 8th overall selection in the upcoming NHL entry draft and looking to acquire NHL-ready talent, it should come as no surprise that Scott Howson would be calling up Steve Tambellini to inquire about the availability of the talented winger. Howson of course was second in command to Kevin Lowe for the Oilers when Hemsky entered the league as a rookie in 2002, and watched him develop over the years until he took on the title of GM in Columbus in 2007. Rumors were rampant last year at the trade deadline that Hemsky was available for the right price, so no doubt he will likely be available again at this years draft. So if the sources are correct, what should the Oilers do with the most skilled player on their roster?

Hemsky is entering the final year of his contract with the Oilers at very affordable cap hit of 4.1M. However with the final year of a contract comes impending unrestricted free agency. Over the past 6 seasons since the lockout, Hemsky has scored a total of 96-235-331 in 360 games and proven himself to be a first line winger on most NHL rosters. He has demonstrated a willingness to play hard in the corners, carry the puck into traffic, and take hits to make plays, often at the expense of his own body. His dynamic offensive skillset, high-end vision, and ability to make plays with the puck at top speed make him one of the premiere playmakers currently in the league. At his age he is entering the prime of his career, and he is certainly the type of player that could help turn around a struggling franchise. No doubt the Blue Jackets are interested in Hemsky on the hockey side as they have been looking for a set up man for Rick Nash ever since they drafted him, but also on the business side to help ice a winner in a market where fans are getting impatient.

Of course with the good in Hemsky also comes the bad. In the past 6 seasons where he has scored nearly a point per game, he has also missed 132 games due to injury. Worse yet, in the past 2 seasons he has only appeared in 69 out of 164 games. He has a tendency to overplay the puck which often leads to turnovers in the offensive zone, and there has also been questions raised in the past about his work ethic at practice. While the latter criticisms are issues that are typically resolved with experience and maturity, Hemsky's on-ice durability is the main concern going forward.

So with this in mind, which direction should the Oilers take? If there is a deal to be had with the Blue Jackets at the draft it is likely centered around the 8th overall selection coming back to the Oilers. With a draft class like this year's where the top-end talent is so spread out, the Oilers would likely get a decent prospect at #8 to go along with the player they take 1st overall. However the issue with moving more proven NHL talent in exchange for prospects is that it would likely mean another lottery pick for the Oilers at the 2012 NHL entry draft. While young talent is certainly a much sought after commodity in today's NHL, there is still something to be said about experience. At some point the Oilers will need to maintain or add some veteran presence to the roster, and with 8 years NHL experience there's no reason why Hemsky couldn't be part of it. Also at only 27 years of age Hemsky is still young enough to move forward with the growing pool of young talent the Oilers have acquired over the past few years. With Ales Hemsky the Oilers know exactly what they are getting, that is a point per game player when healthy. With a draft pick, there is still a significant amount of risk involved regardless of how highly touted a prospect may be. In my opinion it would be better to take the risk with Hemsky's health than with an 8th overall pick, especially considering that Stu MacGregor ranked this draft as only a B+. Unless the Blue Jackets are willing to pay a higher price, which Tambellini should be asking for, and likely is considering he wanted Brayden Schenn in return at the deadline from the LA Kings, I wouldn't consider moving Hemsky. Instead I would look at negotiating a contract extension which would see him through at least the entry level deals for Hall, Eberle, and Paajarvi.

When the Oilers made the decision to move Penner instead of Hemsky at last year's trade deadline, Steve Tambellini must have gotten the impression from Hemsky that he was committed to the rebuild of this franchise. If this was the case then negotiations between both camps should start on July 1st. But just like with Ryan Smyth, if a deal is not in place come spring of 2012 then the Oilers need to move him at the deadline, as they can't allow a talent like his to walk away for nothing next summer.

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