On Kid Line 2.0 and Managing Expectations

Fans got a sneak peak at the future of the Edmonton Oilers tonight as Tom Renney finally put together the trio of players that will form the cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins centered Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle for the first time this preseason and the kid line 2.0 did not disappoint, generating all three goals in a 3-2 victory over the Phoenix Coyotes, with the last two first overall picks in the NHL entry draft netting 6 points. The trio of young forwards displayed an impressive transition game and scored two of the three goals off the rush, something that Oilers forwards have had difficulty doing in the past.  As an Oilers fan you can't help but think about what this line has in store for years to come. There seems to be the pieces required for a great chemistry: an elite playmaker, a hard nosed power forward, and a budding sniper.  But will they be playing together in the NHL this season?

As exciting as it was tonight to see the sublime passing by Nugent-Hopkins combined with the great finishing of Hall, the quality of competition wasn't exactly the cream of the crop. With not quite an NHL caliber lineup iced by the Coyotes it's hard to judge how good this line could really be in the regular season. This was also the Coyotes team that I predicted to finish last in the Western Conference earlier this summer. With two games remaining on the preseason schedule against the Wild and Canucks, it will be interesting to see if Renney gives this line another chance to play against tougher competition and what will surely be near NHL rosters.

While Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle certainly have their names already etched on the roster sheet for this season, whether Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will stay past the first 9 games is still up in the air. But so far in the preseason he's done almost everything right, and is making a strong case for himself. He's scored 6 points in 4 games, which has likely exceeded almost everyone's expectations. Not only has he performed on the offensive side of the puck, but he's managed to stay responsible on the defensive side as well. He definitely does not look out of place on NHL ice. Most importantly he's been able to play the game that made him the first overall pick this summer. This is still an ongoing evaluation of RNH, but he's making the most of his opportunities and doing everything he can to stick with the big club. Regardless of what happens in October, it sure makes for exciting times in Oil Country.

Flying under the shadow of the new kid line tonight was the reunited man line of Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky, and it was just like old times. The trio worked the cycle well, and while they were held off of the score sheet, they seemed to find the chemistry they had back in 2006. Hemsky played in his first game since March 1st and looked like the same player we last saw. He didn't shy away from contact, even crashing Phoenix goalie Mike Smith hard off the wing on one rush when he tried to tuck the puck in far side. Importantly he looked comfortable out there with his rebuilt shoulder. Hopefully Hemsky will be able to build on this first game back, as the Oilers will need him if they are going to be competitive in the Western Conference this season.

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On the Start of Oilers Training Camp

The Edmonton Oilers are set to open the 2011-12 training camp tomorrow morning, starting with team physicals. This will be the second year in a row that camp will start following a long offseason and a first overall pick at the NHL entry draft. But this time around things are a bit different. While the word of the summer of 2010 in OIL Country was rebuild, the word this summer perhaps was retool. A lot of new pieces were brought into the puzzle that will hopefully take the shape of a winner here in Edmonton this offseason. Pieces that didn't seem to fit were moved out and pieces of a specific form were brought in to fill the gaps. Last season the objective was to help the young players learn how to compete at the NHL level. This year the objective should be for the young players to learn how to win. There are however still a number of questions that are worth debating heading into training camp.

Here are 5 of them:

1. Will Ryan Nugent-Hopkins prove he is ready to compete at the NHL level? This is of course the number one question on Oilers' fans minds as training camp starts. There is no doubt that RNH possesses the skill and sense of an NHLer, but will his 175 lb frame be ready to handle the physical rigors of playing at the highest level for 82 games. RNH will get every opportunity throughout the preseason, and likely through another 9 games in the regular season, to demonstrate that he can handle the physicality and still play his game. The answer to this question is not so obvious right now, but it's worth noting that in 2007 Patrick Kane entered the league at around the same weight and still finished with 72 points and won the Calder Memorial Trophy.

2. How will Ales Hemsky and Ryan Whitney respond to offseason surgery? It was already reported earlier this week that both of these veterans will likely not be 100% by the start of preseason. Ryan Whitney was the teams best defenseman last year before an ankle injury ended his season. With his ability to move the puck and generate offense from the back end, a healthy Whitney will be integral to the Oilers improving on their 2010-11 finish. Earlier in the summer Hemsky said that heading into this season he was the healthiest he had been in a long time. What Whitney is on the blue line, Hemsky is up front for the Oilers. Everyone knows how good Hemsky can be when he's healthy, and with unrestricted free agency looming, this will be an important year for both him and the Oilers.

3. Will Petry or Chorney win out as the 7th defenseman? What makes this debate interesting is the fact that waivers will play a large role in determining who is on the NHL roster at the end of the preseason. Starting this season Taylor Chorney is no longer exempt from waivers and will have to clear if the Oilers decide to send him to the AHL. Petry on the other hand is still waiver exempt and the Oilers therefore have no risk in losing him to another club if they choose to send him down. After seeing them both play in the show last season, in my opinion Jeff Petry has already passed Taylor Chorney on the depth chart. However, the Oilers have been developing and waiting on Taylor Chorney since they took him with the 6th pick in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft and are still hoping that they can get a return on their investment of such a high pick. Whether Chorney would be claimed on waivers at this point in his career is questionable but it may not be a risk management is willing to take yet.

4. Which Nikolai Khabibulin will show up to training camp? Two seasons ago, after the Oilers signed him to a new four year deal, Khabibulin started strong and played well despite the inexperience team that skated in front of him each night. The numbers didn't show it but Khabibulin was arguably their MVP that season until a back injury ended his year. Last season, Khabibulin was a completely different story. His compete level dropped off and he seemed content to allow a young goaltender take a bigger share of the starts than he should have. Things went from bad to worse when a drunk driving conviction landed him in jail and subsequent house arrest this summer. If Khabibulin comes to camp ready to battle for the starting role again, the Oilers will have a healthy competition in net this year, which may not be a bad thing.

5. Which of Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, and Anton Lander will start the regular season in Edmonton? At this point the scales may be tipping in favor of Linus Omark given the offensive skill he showed last season. But with Hartikainen showing he has the big body and soft hands to compete and contribute in the NHL at the end of last season, and Lander demonstrating early on that he can bring a complete all-around game to the roster, there may be some competition for Omark. Not to mention this debate will be further complicated if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins takes one of the 13 or 14 forward spots. Omark was clearly displeased with being sent down to the AHL at the end of training camp last season, and it's looking like he'll have to work even harder this year if he wants to avoid the same result.

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On Making a Good First Impression

Last night, Edmonton Oilers fans got their first look at Anton Lander in a game situation and the 2009 2nd round pick definitely did not disappoint. Over the past 2 years the talk about Lander's complete 2-way game has been building around Oil Country, but perhaps the biggest praise came earlier this week from Lander's long time friend and teammate Magnus Paajarvi:

"He's one of the best guys I know as a human being and as a person. He's a very good leader on the ice, and he's very solid at everything. He can do anything." Those are pretty strong words coming from a player who possesses a solid skill set himself.

While the quality of competition from the Vancouver Canucks prospect roster was hardly NHL caliber, Lander still showed off the game that Oilers fans had already heard so much about in the 7-2 victory. Lander not only scored twice on the powerplay, but played physical, strong defensively, won faceoffs, and showed a lot of poise and good hockey sense. The fact that he has been playing against men in the Swedish Elite League for the past 4 years has certainly helped his development, and it showed on Sunday night in Penticton as he played like a veteran among rookies. Combined with his strong leadership qualities and his ability to play in all situations, in Lander it appears as if the Oilers have the makings of a pretty complete hockey player who is still just 20 years old. Now of course it was only one game in a prospect tournament, and as such the results should be taken with a grain of salt, but the potential is there for Lander to become a dependable center in the near future for the Edmonton Oilers. Picking Lander at 40th overall in the 2009 draft may turn out to be another home run for Stu MacGregor and his staff.

Of course, not to be outdone by Anton Lander last night was the one that everyone came out and tuned in to see, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. While RNH didn't quite put on the show that Lander did, he still showed the great vision, quick hands, quick feet, and agility that made him the first overall pick at the NHL draft earlier this summer.

While it was a good Oilers debut for Lander and Nugent-Hopkins, the reality is that they will both be in a tough competition to play in the NHL this season when main camp starts. At this point, the Oilers are heading into training camp with a log jam of centers, including Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, Eric Belanger, and Gilbert Brule, with the first three mentioned essentially guaranteed a roster spot already. Should RNH prove in the preseason that he is ready to play in the NHL then Lander may end up getting caught in the numbers game and be forced to start in AHL, which may not be a bad thing. Though if RNH ends up back in Red Deer, Lander will certainly have a good opportunity to win that 4th center position on the Oilers depth chart out of camp. Let's just hope that when training camp opens in a week, these players can prove true the old adage that competition breeds success.

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On the 2011-12 Northwest Division

With training camps around the NHL set to open in less than a month, the time seems about right to examine some of the offseason moves within the Northwest division, and there have certainly been a lot of them, to see how the Edmonton Oilers stack up against their rivals. The Oilers will play 24/82 games this seasons within the division, meaning there are 48 potential points to be won or lost, not including 3 point games. With the return of the Winnipeg Jets and likelihood of realignment next summer, this may be the last season with the Northwest division as we know it. So here's the breakdown on the five teams in the order they finished last year.

Vancouver Canucks
This summer has been more about subtraction rather than addition for the team that made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final this past season. The biggest loss for the Canucks this summer was Christian Ehrhoff to the Buffalo Sabres, which came at the cost of re-signing Kevin Bieksa. A 50 point defenceman is hard to come by in the NHL and the Canucks will have to look within to replace the lost offense. Up front the Canucks also lost Raffi Torres, and while he was streaky offensively, the grit and energy he brought to the lineup will be missed, though retaining the services of Chris Higgins will help.

Up or Down?
Considering this team lead the league last season in Wins, Points, Goals For, Goals Against, Powerplay %, tied for second in Penalty Kill %, and went to the final round of the playoffs, there's really no place to go but down. Given their new reputation as an NHL powerhouse they can expect the oppositions' best effort night in and night out this season. There should be no easy games this year and the Canucks will be hard pressed to repeat their incredible season, especially given their shortened offseason. Finally if Ryan Kesler is not 100% to start the season, that will be another setback the Canucks will have to overcome. Regardless, they should still easily capture the Northwest division and compete for top seed in the West again.

Calgary Flames
The Flames basically decided to stand pat this summer and hope that their veteran core of Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, and Olli Jokinen can lead them back to the playoffs. This Flames did make a major move this offseason in trading away Robyn Regehr, probably much to the delight of Ales Hemsky and Oilers fans. While he didn't contribute a lot offensively, he was a reliable, physical force on the Calgary blue line every night. Replacing him will be Scott Hannan, who Jay Feaster recently signed to a low risk deal of 1 year/$1 million. The blueline will now have to be lead by Jay Bouwmeester and Mark Giordano. Up front, younger forwards like Curtis Glencross and Rene Bourque will provide some depth beyond the big three veterans, but they will need to keep producing as there is not much else behind them.

Up or Down?
While every other team in the Northwest made significant moves to try and get better, the Flames have stood still. Jarome Iginla is coming off another impressive season in which he scored 43-43-86 but at 34 years old those type of seasons will be harder to come by. In net Mikka Kiprusoff is still an elite goaltender but he will need to steal a lot of games if the Flames are going to stay in playoff contention. The Flames fell short last season, and made more subtractions than additions this summer, so they are likely on their way down this year.

Minnesota Wild
The Wild made arguably the biggest moves in the division this offseason by acquiring former 50 goal scorer Dany Heatley and former 30 goal scorer Devin Setoguchi. Moving out in exchange for them was the teams best defenseman Brent Burns and Martin Havlat, who never quite found his offensive stride in Minny. While the roster took a hit on the blue line, they've added to their depth up front by adding two established NHL goal scorers. Although Heatley and Setoguchi haven't scored those career highs in goals again in recent history, the potential for big offense is still there. The Wild also added two first round prospects in the Setoguchi deal, so they have made moves to try and improve their roster for now and for the future. While the Wild will need to look from within their system to replace Burns on the blue line, they still have a rock in net in Niklas Backstrom to rely on.

Up or Down?
The Wild have upgraded a bit this summer. Lack of offense has plagued this franchise for years but with their new forwards and a new coach, they now appear to be moving away from their defense first mentality. Depth of scoring beyond their top line will still be a problem for the team that scored the second fewest goals in the Western conference last year. The upgrade this team made on offense however, came at the expense of defense as the blue line is left quite thin. Niklas Backstrom will need to be very good if the Wild are to move up in the standings this season.

Colorado Avalanche
The Avs made big moves at the trade deadline last season bringing in former first overall pick Erik Johnson and moving out a big scorer in Chris Stewart. To offset the loss the Avs brought in a potential replacement for Stewart at the draft by selecting Gabriel Landeskog, who is expected to make the team this year. The biggest move was trading for Semyon Varlamov and signing JS Giguere for insurance in net. Those two moves represent a big upgrade for the Avs as they suffered through the leagues worst goaltending last season. The team moved offensive defenseman John-Michael Liles but managed to add to their blueline by signing Jan Hejda and Shane O'Brien.

Up or Down?
The Avalanche are clearly on the upswing. Bringing in Semyon Varlamov to be the number one goaltender was a huge move, as the drop off in goaltending was the big difference between the team that made the playoffs in 2010 and the team that missed in 2011. The play of Varlamov will factor in largely to where the Avs finish this season. While it would be unfair to expect a rookie like Landeskog to immediately make an impact this season, he will still fill the power forward role that Stewart previously had and should provide a good two-way game. The Avs are also still very strong down the middle with Matt Duchene one year older and Paul Stastny likely to rebound from a down season. Shipping out Liles was a bold move, but having Johnson for the full season should help with the offense from the back end. This team could make the biggest jump in the standings this season.

Edmonton Oilers
The moves by the Oilers this summer have already been covered extensively around the Oilogosphere so I'll spare you the analysis again. In are Ryan Smyth, Eric Belanger, Ben Eager, Darcy Hordichuk, Cam Barker, Andy Sutton, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Out are Andrew Cogliano, Zack Stortini, Jim Vandermeer, Jason Strudwick, Colin Fraser, and Kurtis Foster.

Up or Down?
The Oilers are definitely on the way up. With the rookies one year better and a number of holes in the roster filled with role players, there should be improvement over the past few seasons. The key issue is still goaltending and team defense, but this team will not be picking first overall again at the 2012 NHL entry draft.

Putting it all together
So how will the Northwest division shape up this season? Given how competitive the Western Conference has become it is still very likely that only one team from the Northwest division will finish in the top 8 again this year. Here's how I see the Northwest finishing:

1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. Edmonton Oilers
5. Minnesota Wild

Care to discuss?

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On Finishing Last in the West

Today The Hockey News began their series of 2011-12 NHL regular season predictions and have selected two Canadian teams to finish last in their respective conferences. In the East the rebuilding Ottawa Senators have drawn the short straw, and in the West they've predicted none other than the Edmonton Oilers to finish 15th for a third consecutive season. This came as perhaps a bit of a surprise considering the rebuild in Edmonton is already entering its third year, and THN is suggesting with their choice that essentially no progress has been made with this franchise.

Here's their reasoning behind not moving the OIL up in the standings just yet:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was added to the exciting core of youth in Edmonton, but like the Senators, the Oilers still have a couple years of bumps and bruises ahead of them. While the prospects should have fans giddy with excitement, the fact is Edmonton is buried in a deep conference full of Stanley Cup contenders, so expectations have to be tempered. Once their prospects earn some experience, the Oilers will be off and running.

The Western conference has certainly become more and more competitive these past few seasons. Looking at last years standings, the Columbus Blue Jackets finished with nearly a .500 record (34-35-13) and 81 points and still only managed to place 13th. From there however, it was a large drop off in points to 14th with the Colorado Avalanche finishing with 68 points on the year. While the Blue Jackets have definitely improved this off season, the direction the Avalanche are headed this season is not as obvious. Although Semyon Varlamov is an upgrade on Craig Anderson and a full season of Erik Johnson and adding Gabriel Landeskog should yield some positive results.

So if the teams directly above the Oilers have improved, what are their chances of moving up this year? Clearly the Oilers have done some upgrading of their own this offseason, which should bring improvement assuming the injury bug doesn't bite as bad as it has in recent history. But will that improvement be enough to catch the Avs and Blue Jackets? Adding to this debate is the fact that while number of teams in the West did get better this summer, some have also managed to get worse, with the Phoenix Coyotes being the standout. The Coyotes had the 8th best offense in the Western Conference last season scoring a total of 231 goals. However, with the exit of Eric Belanger and Scottie Upshall this summer, the Coyotes lost 35 of those goals, which they will likely be hard pressed to replace. Without the offense those two players brought, the Coyotes would have been only 3 goals better than the Oilers. The biggest departure from the roster though is of course Ilya Bryzgalov. Phoenix won 43 games last year (36 from Bryzgalov) and 20 of those came in 1 goal games. The goaltending of Bryzgalov certainly played a big part in a lot of those victories. Replacing him with the tandem of Mike Smith and Jason Labarbera, who together only have just over 300 games in the NHL, is a downgrade to say the least. If Oilers fans think that entering the season with Khabibulin and Dubnyk is questionable, then consider what Coyotes fans must have on their minds. Dave Tippett will have his work cut out for him this year, and short of a stroke of genius on his part, the Coyotes are poised for a tumble down the standings in 2011-12 and are my early pick to finish 15th in the West.

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